Selected Work in Progress

1. Droughts, Dirty Energy, and Health

   with Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Sophie Mathes, and Ricardo Ramos Fontes

   [Abstract]
   Hydropower-dependent electricity systems are increasingly exposed to drought risk. We study one consequence of this vulnerability: when droughts reduce hydropower availability, system operators increase fossil-fuel generation, worsening air pollution and respiratory health. We combine plant-level electricity generation, hydrological conditions, ERA5 wind fields, and hospitalization records from Brazil's public health system to estimate the health impacts of drought-induced fossil generation. Using source-receptor weights based on distance and wind direction, we construct a drought-predicted measure of exposure to transported emissions from thermal power plants. We show that droughts reduce hydro inflows and reservoir storage, increasing generation from coal, oil, and natural gas. Higher exposure to this drought-induced fossil generation significantly increases urgent respiratory hospitalizations. Surprisingly, we find that even natural gas generation is associated with substantial increases in respiratory morbidity. Finally, we show that the expansion of wind and solar power weakened the fossil-fuel response to hydropower scarcity. Counterfactual simulations suggest that this reduced drought-induced thermal generation and prevented several hundred urgent respiratory hospitalizations.

2. Electrifying Latin American Cities: Incentives, Insecurity, and the Demand for Electric Vehicles

   with Lenin Balza, Hernán Bejarano, and Nicolás Gomez

   [Abstract]
   Electric vehicles (EVs) are central to decarbonization, yet adoption remains low in many developing countries despite widespread policy support. We study the relative importance of the three main policy instruments used to promote EV adoption, i.e., purchase subsidies, public charging infrastructure, and exemptions from driving restrictions, and compare them with a previously overlooked barrier: perceived urban insecurity. Using an original discrete choice experiment conducted in Bogotá and Santiago, we estimate consumers' willingness to pay for each policy instrument and quantify the effect of fear of vehicle theft on EV demand. We find that perceived insecurity substantially reduces the attractiveness of EVs, with an effect comparable in magnitude to the value consumers assign to charging expansion and driving-restriction exemptions, and larger than the remaining EV price premium. Our findings suggest that conventional electrification policies address only part of the adoption problem, highlighting the importance of institutional and security-related constraints in the transition to clean transportation.

3. Blasting Dust: The Pollution-Health Impact of Industrial Mining Developments

   with Gustavo Ahumada, Lenin Balza and Nicolás Gomez

4. Renewable Energies, Fossil Fuel Displacement and Academic Performance in Environmental Justice Communities

   Winner of CAF Grant 2022-2023

5. Environmental Enforcement in the Aftermath of Major Environmental Disasters

   with Lenin Balza and Nicolás Gomez