Selected Work in Progress

1. Droughts, Dirty Energy, and Health

   with Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Sophie Mathes, and Ricardo Ramos Fontes

   [Abstract]
   Hydropower-dependent electricity systems are increasingly exposed to drought risk. We study one consequence of this vulnerability: when droughts reduce hydropower availability, system operators increase fossil-fuel generation, worsening air pollution and respiratory health. We combine plant-level electricity generation, hydrological conditions, ERA5 wind fields, and hospitalization records from Brazil's public health system to estimate the health impacts of drought-induced fossil generation. Using source-receptor weights based on distance and wind direction, we construct a drought-predicted measure of exposure to transported emissions from thermal power plants. We show that droughts reduce hydro inflows and reservoir storage, increasing generation from coal, oil, and natural gas. Higher exposure to this drought-induced fossil generation significantly increases urgent respiratory hospitalizations. Surprisingly, we find that even natural gas generation is associated with substantial increases in respiratory morbidity. Finally, we show that the expansion of wind and solar power weakened the fossil-fuel response to hydropower scarcity. Counterfactual simulations suggest that this reduced drought-induced thermal generation and prevented several hundred urgent respiratory hospitalizations.

2. Policy Instruments and Non-Price Barriers to Electric Vehicle Adoption

   with Lenin Balza, Hernán Bejarano, and Nicolás Gomez

   [Abstract]
   Electric vehicle (EV) adoption remains limited in Latin America despite growing efforts to decarbonize urban transportation. This paper examines how consumers respond to alternative EV policy instruments and non-price barriers in Bogotá, Colombia, and Santiago, Chile. We conduct a discrete choice experiment among prospective vehicle buyers, who face hypothetical choices between conventional and electric vehicles with varying prices, technical characteristics, charging availability, and regulatory benefits. Using conditional and mixed logit models, we estimate consumers' willingness to pay for different vehicle attributes and policy incentives. Our findings highlight the importance of charging infrastructure and exemptions from driving restrictions as alternatives to traditional purchase subsidies. Regulatory incentives are particularly relevant in cities where driving restrictions impose greater constraints on vehicle use, illustrating how local institutional conditions shape consumer preferences. We also document substantial differences in EV valuations associated with home-charging access, prior experience with electric vehicles, and preferences for new versus used cars. Overall, the findings suggest that policies to accelerate EV adoption in Latin America should consider not only vehicle affordability but also infrastructure access, existing transportation regulations, and differences in consumer circumstances.

3. Blasting Dust: The Pollution-Health Impact of Industrial Mining Developments

   with Gustavo Ahumada, Lenin Balza and Nicolás Gomez

4. Renewable Energies, Fossil Fuel Displacement and Academic Performance in Environmental Justice Communities

   Winner of CAF Grant 2022-2023

5. Environmental Enforcement in the Aftermath of Major Environmental Disasters

   with Lenin Balza and Nicolás Gomez